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Moisture Manager Update
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- BOM forecasts showing below average rainfall for the remainder of winter
- Extreme maximum temperatures forecast to occur mid-August through eastern Australia
- General moisture levels forecast to improve in September and October, however, international
seasonal forecasting models not aligned on temperature and rainfall predictions
- Local atmospheric conditions deteriorating with the southern annular mode (SAM)
and atmospheric blocking forecast to enter a negative phase
- The SOI currently in a neutral range
(30 day average = -6)
- Conditions in the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean forecast to trend toward a neutral
state in the spring
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
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Measure
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Indicator
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Current Status
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Forecast Trend
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Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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0.0
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Neutral
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Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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0.0
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Neutral
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Indian Ocean
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-0.2
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Neutral
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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-5.0
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Neutral
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Southern Annular Mode
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-2.0
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Dry
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Tasman Sea Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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0.0
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Dry
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the
indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
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Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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JMA (JPN)
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10 July
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Above average August
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No rain events forecast for August
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UK Met (UK)
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14 July
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Average
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Aug/Sep/Oct Average to
Above average
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BOM (Aust)
and POAMA2
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24 July
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Above Average August
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Below Average August
Average Sep/Oct
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BOM Extreme Heat Model
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24 July
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Extreme heat: Aug 3-16
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IRI (USA)
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18 July
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Extreme heat: Aug 3-16
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Below Average
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Jamstec (JPN)
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23 July
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Above Average
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Below Average
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ECMWF (UK)
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15 July
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Above Average
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Aug/Sep/Oct
Average
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- Models favouring below average rainfall
and above average temperatures through August
- Models not aligned on Spring rainfall or temperatures
Note: Seasonal Forecasting models entering a period of reasonably high accuracy.
Caution required regarding farm management and investment decisions through July,
August.
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30-day Air Pressre Anomaly (to July 24)
Figure 1. 30 Day air-pressue anomaly (Source:NOAA,
2014)
- Low air pressure influencing southern Australia with snow and cooler temperatures and higher air pressure keeping northern Australia dry
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POAMA Extreme Heat Forecast
Figure 2. Extreme temperature forecast prediction (3Aug - 16 August) (Source:BOM
Extreme Heat Model)
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Observed Rainfall Totals
Figure 3. Observed rainfall Totals; Week ending 25th July, 2014. Source:
BOM )
Next Update: 11 August, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate
its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should
obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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