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Moisture Manager Update
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- Leading Climatologist: “An aborted El Niño event is a distinct possibility”
- Favourable atmospheric indicators continue to move at odds with developing El Niño sea surface temperature indicators in the Tropical Pacific.
- The Bureau of Meteorology models continue to predict a reduced longer term Niño 3.4 SST warming offering hopes for spring rainfall
- Southern Oscillation Index on a steady rising trend with 30 day average currently +8 and daily value of +30
- Latest winter/spring rainfall predictions from ENSO Technical Summary
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
| Measure |
Indicator
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Current Status
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Forecast
Trend |
Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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+0.6 |
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Neutral
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| Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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0.0 |
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Neutral
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| Indian Ocean
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-0.1
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Neutral
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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+8.1 |
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Wet
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| Southern Annular Mode
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+2.0 |
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Wet
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Tasman Sea Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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+10 |
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Wet
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
| Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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| JMA (JPN) |
11 June |
Slightly below average June for Q’ld
Average elsewhere
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No clear signal for June rainfall |
| Florida State GSM |
13 June |
Below Average J/A/S |
Above average Qld 3 months
Average NSW 3 months
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| BOM (Aust) and POAMA2 |
12 June |
Above average July/Aug/Sept |
Below Average 3 months |
- Models not aligned on precipitation & temperature forecasts and caution needs to be taken on surveyed results.
Figure 1. Maximum temperature forecast for July (Source: BOM/POAMA, 13 June, 2014)
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Murray-Darling Basin Weekly Rainfall Summary
Figure 2. Observed weekly rainfall totals for the Murray Darling Basin.
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Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre – ENSO Summary June, 2014
Leading climatologist Dr David Stephens (formerly DAFWA) has released the latest monthly ENSO summary
The Southern Oscillation index remains positive for a second consecutive month.
The ENSO Transition index also became less negative and tropical convection has yet to show a distinct El Niño pattern.
This uncoupled state has added uncertainty to an El Niño prediction and suggests that a weaker type of event is likely compared to what was predicted two months ago.
If the ocean and atmosphere remain uncoupled an aborted El Niño is a distinct possibility
AEGIC ENSO Summary; June 6th, 2014
The “Analogue year” is produced from the ENSO technical summary – the historical year with the greatest similarity to the current year (2014). The analogue year is calculated from a comprehensive set of Indian and Pacific Ocean air pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies. The 1st ranked year – 1979 was an aborted El Niño.
The following table summarises the 2014 rainfall predictions, showing rank of the top 2 analogue years for winter and spring (with respect to seasonal averages) for cotton growing areas;
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Location
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Winter Rainfall (mm)
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Spring Rainfall (mm)
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1st Rank year
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2nd Rank year
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1st Rank year
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2nd Rank Year
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1979
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1986
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1979
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1986
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Emerald
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30 (-38)
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90 (+22)
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83 (-41)
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272 (+148)
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St George
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72 (-8)
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89 (+9)
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90 (-24)
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177 (+63)
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Dalby
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98 (+12)
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75 (-11)
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227 (+57)
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160 (-10)
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Moree
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86 (-30)
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133 (+17)
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205 (+66)
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208 (+69)
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Wee Waa
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78 (-44)
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127 (+5)
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119 (-19)
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142 (+4)
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Breeza
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78 (-45)
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185 (+62)
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225 (+73)
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101 (-22)
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Warren
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63 (-43)
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136 (+30)
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120 (+13)
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109 (+2)
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Hillston
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91 (-6)
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96 (-1)
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93 (+3)
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181 (+91)
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Hay
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90 (-9)
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149 (+50)
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75 (-24)
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145 (+53)
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Rainfall showing a near average trend, typical of a weak El Niño event where variable atmospheric moisture supply tends to be reflected in local rainfall observations
Next Update: 30 June, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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