Moisture Manager Update 14 July, 2014

• BOM forecasts showing below average rainfall and above average maximum temperature predictions for the remainder of winter
• Spring rainfall and temperature predictions still unclear with international models divided on predicted 2014 El Niño event
• Local atmospheric conditions favourable for eastern Australian rainfall however, the falling SOI creating concern for winter rainfall prospects (current 30 day average SOI = -3)
• Sea surface temperatures in the Tasman & Coral Sea continue to be warmer than normal providing a potential moisture source for late winter and spring rainfall
• Ocean and atmospheric conditions following a similar pattern to 1991 (the July, 2014 AEGIC analogue year)

1. Summary of Climatic Indicators

   Measure	Indicator	Current Status		Forecast Trend
   Sea Surface Temperature Indices	Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4	+0.4		Neutral
   	Pacific Ocean – Composite Index	0.0		Neutral
   	Indian Ocean	-0.4		Neutral
   Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Oscillation Index	-3.0		Neutral
   	Southern Annular Mode	+3.0		Wet
   Tasman Sea Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure	Blocking	+30.0		Wet
   So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.

2. Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary

   
   

   Source	Model Released	Temperature Forecast (monthly)	Precipitation Monthly Outlook
   JMA (JPN)	10 July	Average 4 weeks	Light widespread rainfall in July
   AGEIC Summary	6 July	N/A	Below Average Winter (similar to 1991)
   BOM (Aust) and POAMA2	13 July	Above Average daytime Below Average night time	Below Average Winter

    

   • Models favouring below average rainfall through July, August and September

    

   Note: Seasonal Forecasting models entering a period of reasonably high accuracy. Caution required regarding farm management and investment decisions through July and August.

    

3. 30-day Air Pressre Anomaly

   

    

   Figure 1 30-day air pressure anomaly (Source: NOAA, 2014)

   • Low air pressure influencing southern Australia with recent cold temperatures moving north from the southern ocean

4. Rainfall Deciles: 3 months from 1 April – 30 June, 2014

   

    

   Figure 2. Observed quarterly rainfall deciles for Australia (Source: BOM, 2014)

Next Update: 28 July, 2014

Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.