Moisture Manager Update 7th March, 2014

• High confidence of Tropical Cyclone formation in the Coral Sea to the 11th March
• A positive Southern Annular Mode assisting with moisture circulation in eastern Australia through March
• Temperature forecast showing cooler than average anomalies in Queensland and warmer than average in the Riverina district through March
• The Madden-Julian Oscillation currently in an active phase across Africa and the western hemisphere
• All atmospheric indicators (Blocking, SAM and SOI)tending towards neutral with the exception of the SOI, which is showing a recent negative trend for the remainder of February

1. Summary of Climatic Indicators

   Measure	Indicator	Preferred Status	Current Status	Indicator Range	Forecast
   Sea Surface Temperature Indices	Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4	Negative	-0.3	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	↓
   	Pacific Ocean – Composite Index	Negative	+0.3	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	→
   	Indian Ocean	Negative	-0.4	<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD	→
   Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Oscillation Index	Positive	-6	<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase	↓
   	Southern Annular Mode	Positive	1	-3< SAM >+3	→
   Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure	Blocking	Positive	-15	-60< B.I >+60	→




2. POAMA Temperature Guidance Summary

   
   
   

   Key Points:

   • BOM heatwave forecast showing no indications of heat waves in the next 7 day period
   • Temperature anomalies split through cotton regions out to the 22 March (medium predictive skill)

3. Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts

   The United States Climate Prediction Centre is showing increased potential for the development of Tropical Cyclone activity in north-eastern Australia in the next two week period.

   
   
   

   The US Climate Prediction Centre update (5 March, 2014):

Next Update: 21st March, 2014

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