Moisture Manager

A warming of Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures during January has pushed the Niño 3.4 index to La Niña thresholds, improving the prospects for autumn rain.
Temperature forecasts show above average conditions in central and southern growing areas in February and cooler temperatures in central Queensland.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation unlikely to influence eastern Australia in February.
Tropical cyclone formation in the Coral Sea is unlikely in the next two week period.
Atmospheric indicators are improving, with blocking in the upper atmosphere reducing prospects for rain in growing areas south of the Darling Downs region through February.

Measure	Indicator	Preferred Status	Current Status	Indicator Range	Forecast
Sea Surface Temperature Indices	Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4	Negative	-0.7	<-0.8 La Niña >+0.8 El Niño	↓
	Pacific Ocean – Composite Index	Negative	+0.1	<-0.8 La Niña >+0.8 El Niño	→
	Indian Ocean	Negative	0.0	<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD	→
Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Oscillation Index	Positive	+14	>+5 Positive Phase <-5 Negative Phase	→
Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Annular Mode	Positive	0	-3< SAM >+3	↑
Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure	Blocking	Positive	-40	-60< B.I >+60	↑

Source	Model Released	Temperature Forecast (monthly)	Precipitation Monthly Outlook
UK Met	20th January	average	above average 3 months
BOM (Aust) and POAMA2	2nd February	above average February below average March	above average March average April average May
BOM Heat Wave Forecast	6th February	Heat Wave 7-11 February NSW
Japan Met. Agency	30th January	above average February	average February

Above average February temperature anomaly forecast (low to medium predictive skill)
BOM heatwave model showing a heatwave event occurring in NSW from January 28-30
Average to above March rainfall anomaly forecast (low/medium predictive skill)

Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts

The Climate Prediction Centre is showing an increased potential for the development of Tropical Cyclone activity in north-eastern Australia next week followed by more stable conditions out to 18 February, 2014.

Source: the US Climate Prediction Centre update (5 February, 2014)
El Niño Alert: 2014

El Niño is a defined state of the Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is normally associated with below average precipitation and above average temperatures.

ENSO predictions of a leading climate research agency in the US are shown in the figure below. The red bar graphs show a 49 percent chance of El Niño returning and a 45 percent chance of ENSO neutral conditions (green bar graph) in the 2014 Australian spring season. The probabilities may change through the autumn season, so it’s important we revisit these predictions again in the coming months.

Source: IRI Columbia USA (February 6, 2014)

Next Update: 21 February, 2014

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