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Moisture Manager Update
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- Leading climatologist waters down severity of 2014 El Niño, offering some hope for spring rainfall
- Above average temperature predictions for eastern Australia through winter/spring
- Seasonal Global Circulation Models moving towards lower than average winter rainfall
- Location specific AEGIC statistical predictions for 2014 winter rainfall
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
| Measure
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Indicator
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Preferred Status
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Current Status
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Indicator Range
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Forecast
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Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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Negative
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+0.4 |
<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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↑
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| Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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Negative
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+0.1 |
<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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→
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| Indian Ocean
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Negative
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neutral
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<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD
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→
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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Positive
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0.4 |
<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase
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→
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| Southern Annular Mode
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Positive
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-1 |
-3< SAM >+3
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→
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Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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Positive
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neutral |
-60< B.I >+60
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→
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
| Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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| JMA (JPN) |
14 May |
Above Average May |
No rain events forcast for next 4 weeks |
| IRI Columbia (US) |
16 May |
Average J/J/A |
Average J/J/A
Below average QLD |
| BOM (Aust) and POAMA2 |
15 May |
Above Average May
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Average J/J/A |
| ECMWF (UK) |
10 May |
Above average Qld J/J/A
Average NSW
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Below Average J/J/A
All Areas |
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Murray-Darling Basin May Rainfall Summary
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Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre – ENSO Summary May, 2014
Leading climatologist Dr David Stephens (formerly DAFWA) has released the latest monthly ENSO summary.
Volatility in the air pressure patterns in the Pacific suggest “a weaker El Niño is likely compared to that predicted a month ago”. Earlier predictions were showing 2014 having similarities with 1982 year which was dire in terms of winter and spring rainfall, achieving some of the lowest observations on record.
The “Analogue year” is produced from the ENSO technical summary – the historical year with the greatest similarity to the current year (2014). The analogue year is calculated from a comprehensive set of Indian and Pacific Ocean air pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies.
The following table summarises the 2014 rainfall predictions, showing rank of each analogue year for cotton growing areas;
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Location
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Winter Rainfall (mm)
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Long Term winter average (mm)
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1st Rank year
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2nd Rank year
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3rd Rank year
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1979
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2004
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2002
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Emerald
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30
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0
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42
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68
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St George
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72
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24
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44
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80
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Dalby
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98
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34
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68
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86
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Moree
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86
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54
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33
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116
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Wee Waa
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78
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76
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49
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122
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Breeza
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78
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106
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39
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123
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Warren
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63
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74
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4
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106
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Hillston
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91
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100
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29
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97
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Hay
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90
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106
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47
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99
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Note: Analogue years 1979 and 2004 show average to above spring rainfall for most locations.
The AEGIC ENSO monthly technical summaries and seasonal temperature guidance need to be carefully monitored through winter.
Find your nearest BOM historical data set HERE
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2014 Spring Temperature Guidance
Source: IRI, Columbia University 16 May, 2014
Next Update: 30 May, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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