Moisture Manager Update 24 March, 2014

• A positive Southern Annular Mode assisting with moisture circulation in eastern Australia through the remainder of March
• Warm local sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea currently providing convective moisture into eastern Australia
• A weak Madden-Julian Oscillation forecast to pass through the eastern Australia in the second week of April
• High confidence of tropical cyclone formation in the Arafura Sea out to 25 March
• New Sea Surface Temperature predictions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean showing unfavourable conditions for convective moisture supply in the winter and spring seasons of 2014
• SOI continues in the recent negative phase, currently -13

1. Summary of Climatic Indicators

   Measure	Indicator	Preferred Status	Current Status	Indicator Range	Forecast
   Sea Surface Temperature Indices	Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4	Negative	-0.4	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	↑
   	Pacific Ocean – Composite Index	Negative	+0.3	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	→
   	Indian Ocean	Negative	-0.2	<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD	→
   Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Oscillation Index	Positive	-13	<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase	↓
   	Southern Annular Mode	Positive	1	-3< SAM >+3	↑
   Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure	Blocking	Positive	0	-60< B.I >+60	→

2. Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary (21 March, 2014)

   
   

   Source	Model Released	Temperature Forecast (monthly)	Precipitation Monthly Outlook
   ECMWF	1st March	above average April - June	average April - June
   IRI Columbia (US)	21st March	average April - June	average April - June
   BOM (Aust) and POAMA2	16th March	average April - June	average April - June
   BOM Heat Wave Forecast	21st March	no heat waves forecast
   UK Met	17th March	above average April - June	average April - June

   Key Points:

   • No clear signal for either wet or dry precipitation for the April-June period
   • Most models showing a trend towards average temperatures through the April-June period

3. Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts

   The United States Climate Prediction Centre is showing increased potential for the development of Tropical Cyclone activity in north-eastern Australia in the next two week period.

   
   
   

   The US Climate Prediction Centre update (19 March, 2014):

4. Australian Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

   
   
   
   
   
   
   

   Source: US CPC, 20th March, 2014

Next Update: 7 April, 2014

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