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Moisture Manager Update
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- Model consensus building for below average rainfall and above average temperatures for the remainder of winter
- Spring rainfall and temperature predictions unclear at as cooling in the Niño 3.4 region throws doubts over predicted 2014 El Niño event
- Local atmospheric conditions favourable, however the SOI is predicted to drop from +4 to below zero in the next few weeks
- Sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea continue to be warmer than normal providing a potential moisture source for winter and spring rainfall
- For a full roundup of seasonal outlooks view a copy of the webinar: An overview of climatic conditions & forecasts leading into summer crop 2014-15 here.
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
| Measure |
Indicator
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Current Status
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Forecast
Trend |
Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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+0.4 |
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Neutral
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| Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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0.0 |
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Neutral
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| Indian Ocean
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-0.1 |
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Slightly Wet
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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+4.0 |
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Dry |
| Southern Annular Mode
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+3.0 |
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Wet
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Tasman Sea Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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+30.0 |
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Wet
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
| Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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| JMA (JPN) |
25 June |
Slightly above average July for NSW & Q’ld |
No signal for July rainfall |
| UK Met Office (UK) |
16 June |
Average J/A/S |
Average NSW 3 months |
| ECMWF |
20 June |
Above Average Q’ld J/A/S
Average NSW J/A/S
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Below Average J/A/S |
| IRI (US) |
19 June |
Above Average J/A/S
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Below Average J/A/S |
| BOM (Aust) and POAMA2 |
26 June |
AAbove average J/A/S
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Below Average J/A/S |
- Models favouring high temperatures through July, August and September
- Models favouring below average rainfall through July, August and September
Note: Seasonal Forecasting models entering a period of reasonably high accuracy. Caution required regarding farm management and investment decisions through July, August and September.
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Eastern Australian Weekly Rainfall Summary
Figure 2. Observed weekly rainfall totals for the Murray Darling Basin.
Next Update: 14 July, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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