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Moisture Manager Update
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- A positive Southern Annular Mode assisting with moisture circulation in eastern Australia through the first half of April
- Warm local sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea and Indian Ocean currently providing convective moisture into eastern Australia
- A weak but strengthening Madden-Julian Oscillation forecast to pass through the eastern Australia in the second & third weeks of April
- Moderate confidence of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf/Darwin region in the third week of April
- Sea Surface Temperature predictions in the Tropical Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4) showing unfavourable conditions for convective moisture supply in the winter and spring seasons of 2014
- SOI continues in the recent negative phase, currently -13
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
| Measure
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Indicator
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Preferred Status
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Current Status
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Indicator Range
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Forecast
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Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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Negative
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0
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<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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↑
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| Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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Negative
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+0.3
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<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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→
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| Indian Ocean
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Negative
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-0.2
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<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD
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↓
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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Positive
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-11
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<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase
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↑
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| Southern Annular Mode
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Positive
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1
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-3< SAM >+3
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↑
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Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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Positive
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+18
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-60< B.I >+60
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→
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
| Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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| JMA |
2nd April March |
Average April |
average April |
| CPC (US) |
1st April |
Above average A/M/J |
average A/M/J |
| BOM (Aust) and POAMA2 |
3rd April |
average A/M/J |
average A/M/J |
| Floria State Uni (US) |
1st April |
Below Average A/M/J |
average |
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Analogue Year
Dr. David Stephens; Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (formerly DAFWA) each month produces an “Analogue Year” as part of a ENSO Technical Summary – one which most represents the calendar year 2014.
Top 3 Analogue Years for 2014:
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Narrabri
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| Year Rank
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May - November Rainfall (mm)
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May - November Average (mm)
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| 1. 1947 |
345 |
332 |
| 2. 1975 |
250 |
332 |
| 3. 1991 |
404 |
332 |
Search your nearest weather station historical data here
- No clear signal for either wet or dry precipitation for the April-June period
- Most models showing a trend towards average temperatures through the April-June period
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts
The United States Climate Prediction Centre is showing increased potential for the development of Tropical Cyclone activity in the Darwin/Gulf of Carpentaria region in the third week of April.
Source: CPC, USA
The US Climate Prediction Centre update (2nd April, 2014):
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Australian Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
Source: US CPC, 3rd April, 2014
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Murray Darling Basin Rainfall Totals:
Beardmore Dam as at 3rd April, St George Q’ld. (source: Balonne Airwork)
Next Update: 21 April, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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