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Moisture Manager Update
21st February, 2014
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- A warming of Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures continues to provide moisture
to eastern Australia with the Niño 3.4 index remaining on the border of La Niña
thresholds
- Temperature forecast showing average conditions through the autumn period by the
majority of international models surveyed
- The Madden-Julian Oscillation unlikely to influence Eastern Australia in March
- Tropical Cyclone formation in the Coral Sea reduced in the next two week period
- All atmospheric indicators (Blocking, SAM and SOI)tending towards neutral with the
exception of the SOI, which is showing a recent negative trend for the remainder
of February
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
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Measure
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Indicator
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Preferred Status
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Current Status
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Indicator Range
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Forecast
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Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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Negative
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-0.6
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<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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→
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Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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Negative
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+0.1
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<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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→
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Indian Ocean
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Negative
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0.0
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<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD
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→
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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Positive
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+2.8
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<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase
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↓
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Southern Annular Mode
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Positive
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+1
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-3< SAM >+3
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→
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Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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Positive
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-5
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-60< B.I >+60
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→
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Temperature & Rainfall Guidance Summary
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Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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ECMWF
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11th February
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average Autumn
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average autumn
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IRI Columbia (US)
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21st February
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average Autumn
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average autumn
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BOM (Aust)
and POAMA2
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16st February
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average Autumn
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average autumn
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BOM Heat
Wave Forecast
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6th February
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no heat waves forecast
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Jamstec (JP)
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21st February
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above average autumn
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below average autumn
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- Average autumn season temperatures forecast (low to medium predictive skill)
- BOM heatwave forecast showing no indications of heat waves in the next 7 day period
- Rainfall anomaly forecasts showing no signal for above or below conditions for the
autumn season (low predictive skill)
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Tropical Cyclone Activity Forecasts
The United States Climate Prediction Centre is showing reduced potential for the
development of Tropical Cyclone activity in north-eastern Australia in the next
two week period.
The US Climate Prediction Centre update (21 February, 2014):
Next Update: 7th March, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate
its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should
obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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