Moisture Manager Update 5 May, 2014

• Below average temperatures forecast for southern NSW during May
• Average precipitation forecast for eastern Australia during May
• International seasonal forecasting models aligning on above average spring temperatures
• Niño 3.4 Sea Surface Temperature Indicators set to rise rapidly in the coming months and exceed El Niño thresholds in August, 2014

1. Summary of Climatic Indicators

   Measure	Indicator	Preferred Status	Current Status	Indicator Range	Forecast
   Sea Surface Temperature Indices	Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4	Negative	+0.2	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	↑
   	Pacific Ocean – Composite Index	Negative	+0.1	<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño	→
   	Indian Ocean	Negative	-0.2	<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD	→
   Mean Sea Level Air Pressure	Southern Oscillation Index	Positive	+7	<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase	→
   	Southern Annular Mode	Positive	1	-3< SAM >+3	→
   Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure	Blocking	Positive	10	-60< B.I >+60	→
   So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.

2. Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary

   
   

   Source	Model Released	Temperature Forecast (monthly)	Precipitation Monthly Outlook
   JMA (JPN)	1 May	Below Average May	Light rain event mid May
   JAMSTEC (JPN)	30 April	Average M/J/J	Average M/J/J
   BOM (Aust) and POAMA2	30 April	Average May Below Average Riverina	Average May
   UK Met (UK)	21 April	Average	Below Average

3. Murray-Darling Basin April Rainfall Summary

   

4. Australian Spring Temperature Forecast

   

   Source: JAMSTEC (JPN), April 2014

Next Update: 19 May, 2014

Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.