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Moisture Manager Update
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- Chance of El Niño occurring in the spring of 2014 reaches 80 percent
- El Niño 2014: What we need to monitor carefully in the winter months;
- El Niño Modoki (composite) index
- Seasonal temperature predictions
- The Madden-Julian Oscillation trough to pass through Eastern Australia from April 25 - 1 May.
- Average Rainfall and Temperatures forecast for the next 3 months
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Summary of Climatic Indicators
| Measure
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Indicator
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Preferred Status
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Current Status
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Indicator Range
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Forecast
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Sea Surface Temperature Indices
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Pacific Ocean – Niño 3.4
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Negative
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+0.1 |
<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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↑
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| Pacific Ocean – Composite Index
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Negative
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+0.2 |
<-0.5 La Niña >+0.5 El Niño
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→
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| Indian Ocean
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Negative
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-0.2
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<-0.5 Negative IOD >+0.5 Positive IOD
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→
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Mean Sea Level Air Pressure
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Southern Oscillation Index
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Positive
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+2 |
<-5 Negative Phase >+5 Positive Phase
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→
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| Southern Annular Mode
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Positive
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1 |
-3< SAM >+3
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→
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Upper Atmospheric Air Pressure
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Blocking
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Positive
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-20 |
-60< B.I >+60
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↑
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So, does this mean rain? Click here for more information on the indicators and an explanation of what they show.
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Rainfall and Temperature Guidance Summary
| Source
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Model Released
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Temperature Forecast (monthly)
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Precipitation Monthly Outlook
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| JMA (JPN) |
16 April |
Average April/May |
Light rain event 1-7 May |
| IRI (US) |
16 April |
Above average M/J/J Inland areas |
Average A/M/J |
| BOM (Aust) and POAMA2 |
17 April |
Average A/M/J |
Average A/M/J |
| ECMWF (UK) |
16 April |
Average |
Average |
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2014 El Niño - What to watch this year
With every media outlet in rural Australia publicising an El-Niño event in 2014, there are two key areas to monitor when managing climate risk;
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El Niño Modoki (composite) Index – The term “Modoki” was coined by Japanese researchers meaning “similar but different”. The record breaking ocean temperatures of the 1997 El-Niño event has scientist generally cautious when predicting dire outlooks for 2014 rainfall.
The 1997 year actually led to a reasonable supply of moisture to eastern Australia in winter and spring seasons. Scientists then discovered that in certain El-Niño events pools of warm water outside the traditional sea surface measuring zone of Niño 3.4 can provide moisture to eastern Australia. In 1997, the El-Niño “Modoki” (composite) index actually moved in the opposite direction to Niño 3.4 to reach a (favourable) low of -1. In the severe rainfall deficit El-Niño events of 1994 and 2002, the composite index rose to (unfavourable) +0.5 to track a similar value to Niño 3.4.
The severity of the 2014 event will depend on what happens across the entire Tropical Pacific Basin, measured by the El-Niño “Modoki” or composite Index. Scientists have recently discovered that the composite index also has an influence on the Southern Annular Mode in June and July, impacting on our winter rainfall.
Figure 1. Measuring areas of the El Niño “Modoki” Index. The distribution of the ocean warming can influence moisture supply during El-Niño events and must be watched carefully in 2014.
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Seasonal Temperature Predictions: One thing that is almost guaranteed in an El Niño event is a burst of higher temperatures at some stage. Seasonal temperature forecasts are a useful early warning system for approaching heat cells often creating issues with finishing winter crops, losses of stored soil moisture on fallowed ground, irrigation channels and dams.
The seasonal models published monthly at the International Research Institute (USA) have been an accurate guide to predicting temperature extremes in the past.
There are already forecasts showing high spring temperatures which need to be watched regularly through the winter months;
Figure 2. Spring seasonal temperature predictions (IRI, April 2014)
Next Update: 5 May, 2014
Before relying on the material in any important matter, users should carefully evaluate its accuracy, currency, completeness and relevance for their purposes, and should obtain any appropriate professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances.
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